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Lloydminster 
  Retail Mall Vacancy Survey 
 January 2007 

1.0   Economic Background

The City of Lloydminster is located on the Yellowhead Highway approximately 250 km east of Edmonton and 275 km west of Saskatoon, straddling the border (4th Meridian) between Alberta and Saskatchewan. The estimated population, according to the Lloydminster Economic Development office was estimated at 20,988 persons (calculated by the 2001 census and estimated to increase 2.5% per year).  The current population (December 31, 2006) is estimated at approximately 25,000 persons.

Lloydminster is surrounded by some of the richest farmland in western Canada. The district enjoys a buoyant economy, mixed agricultural and oil industry base. The city centres a 2,500-square-mile oil field, said to be the largest concentration of heavy crude in North America. Oil activities, particularly servicing, refining, pipelining and upgrading, have been a predominant Lloydminster activity for many years.

One measure of economic activity in a city is the level of construction. Building permits for 2006 (obtained from the City of Lloydminster Engineering/Planning Dept.) were 105 million compared with 122 million in 2005 (14% decrease) and 68 million in 2004.  This decrease is due to institutional permits being 19 million less than the previous year.  The number of units remained similar but costs have again increased from the previous year.

The MLS residential sales statistics for the city show that the Saskatchewan side had 176 sales (31.8%)  and the Alberta side had a total of 378 (68.2%).  This includes only urban residential properties within the City of Lloydminster. The average house price on the Alberta side was $214,944 up from $193,660 in 2005 and the average house price on the Saskatchewan side was $169,630 up from $153,028 in 2005.  This is an  approximate 11% increase from the previous year.  The average house price is the total sale price of all residential sales divided by the number of sales.  The average house price on the Alberta side is approximately 27% higher than the Saskatchewan side as most of the newer neighborhoods are on the Alberta side.

The following table summarizes the MLS statistics and reflects the past 6 years:

Table #1  
MLS RESIDENTIAL STATS 
As Of December 31, 2006
Province ALBERTA    SASKATCHEWAN   
Year # of
Sales
 
 
Gross Sales
(Millions)
 
 
Avg. Price
/home
 
 
# of
Sales
 
 
Gross Sales
(Millions)
Avg. Price
/home
2006 378 $79.10 $214,944 176 $28.50 $169,630
2005 * 347 $67.20 $193,660 181 $27.52 $153,028
2004 495 $85.25 $172,224 262 $29.83 $113,874
2003 368 $58.07 $152,413 181 $20.56 $113,597
2002 368 $47.58 $129,293 236 $22.13 $93,758
2001 370 $49.67 $134,253 219 $21.06 $96,154
% Increase from
2005 to 2006
    12.4%     34.3%
  *NOTE: Commencing in 2005, the statistics are only the City of Lloydminster.  Previous years included Lloydminster and the surrounding rural towns and acreages.

According to CMHC, apartment vacancy rates in 2006 decreased to 0.2% compared to 0.7% in 2005 and 0.1% in 2004 and 2003.  Despite several new apartment buildings being built in 2006, this still only equates to 4 vacant apartments in the entire city compared to 11 vacant the previous year. The very  low vacancy rate again resulted in rental rate increases in 2006. The average apartment rent is up approximately 10% from October  2005 compared to a  2.2%  increase the year before. The 2006 apartment survey consisted of 1,702 suites, of which nearly one third are located on the Saskatchewan side of the border. The following is a chart for Lloydminster showing the average apartment rental rates from 2002 to 2006:
 

Table #2  
CMHC STATS 
Lloydminster - October 2006
Average Apartment Rent 2002 2003   2004   2005 2006
Bachelor $408 $431 $443 $406 $467
1 Bedroom $479 $503 $521 $540 $581
2 Bedroom $575 $600 $625 $634 $710
3 Bedroom and + $639 $672 $700 $711 $781
Total Average $540 $565 $588 $601 $662

Local industries include the Heavy Oil Bi-Provincial Upgrader, the largest pre-manufactured home factory in western Canada (Nelson Homes), plus several other smaller secondary manufacturing and distributing companies, many of which are related to the oil industry.

Husky Oil  is the largest employer  in Lloydminster. Since the construction of the Bi-Provincial Upgrader in 1992,  Husky has built the 215 megawatt Meridian Co-generation Plant which reached full operating capacity in 1999.  Over the past year, work has been completed on western Canada's largest ethanol plant; which employs 25-30 full time permanent positions.  This plant supports the local economy by purchasing goods and services from local suppliers including approximately 350,000 tonnes of feedstock from local producers, produces approximately 130 million litres of fuel grade ethanol per year and produces approximately 134,00 tonnes of distillers dried grain with solubles (DDGS) per year.   Husky Oil has also announced a future expansion of the upgrader, however the timing of this expansion has not yet been determined due to global fluctuations in oil prices.

Lloydminster has numerous parks and playgrounds, two golf courses and other leisure facilities, including an outdoor swimming pool and an indoor swimming pool and water slide facility.  Common Wealth Centre is a new $25 million dollar multi-plex sports complex on the south side of the city and is now operational. This multi-use recreational complex contains twin ice arenas, twin indoor fieldhouses, a fitness wellness center, a physiotherapy/sports medicine center, upper level running track, exterior oval speed skating rink, child care space, retail sports shop, concession kiosk, lounge/kitchen, etc. and services Lloydminster and the surrounding communities.   Hospitality Inn & Suites is a new hotel with direct access to the multi-plex via a second floor walkway, and was  built to service the expected clientelle of Common Wealth Centre.

There is a full range of educational facilities, including the multi-million dollar Lakeland College Campus developed in the southwest sector of the city. This campus provides community college courses and first and second-year university courses in several disciplines. The Vic Juba Community Theatre is also a 555 seat arts and entertainment theatre on the Lakeland College Campus. 

As discussed above, the city has a diversified economic base which is expected to maintain and improve for the foreseeable future.

2.0   Study Area and Inventory 

The study area includes the entire city of Lloydminster. The majority of the strip retail is concentrated on 44th Street (Trans Canada Yellowhead Highway), which runs the entire width of the city. There is a secondary Highway commercial strip which is 50th Avenue, the Meridian, also known as Provincial Highway No.17. Excluded from this study is the retail component of the downtown core. The malls are classified as either an enclosed retail mall or strip development which includes the Cornerstone Power Center & "Big Box" retail. Excluded from the survey were any one-storey free-standing buildings on pads unless they were part of a mini power center, "Big Box" retail or in the Cornerstone Power Center.

The total inventory is approximately 1,059,235 sq. ft., including one enclosed mall located in the centre of the city on the Trans Canada Yellowhead Highway on the Alberta side of the border. Anchors in this enclosed mall include Sears, Zellers and Safeway. CRU's (Commercial Rental Units) for mini power centers added this year into the strip category includes 16,900 sq. ft. which encompasses a new building on 50th Avenue. 

3.0   Retail Space Overview  

The Lloydminster retail market presently has 205,802 (19.4%) sq. ft. in the enclosed mall and 756,619 (71.4%) sq. ft. in strip retail on the Alberta side of the city and 96,814 (9.1%) sq .ft. on the Saskatchewan side. As a result, the addition of any retail development 10,000 sq. ft. or over can have a significant impact on the vacancy in that category over the short term.

The information gathered and summarized in the following table is effective as of December 31, 2006.
 

Table #3  
RETAIL MALL SURVEY 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - December 31, 2006
Type Total Area  
(Sq.Ft.)
Anchor  
(Sq.Ft.)
CRU's  
(Sq.Ft.)
Total  
Vacant  
(Sq.Ft.)
Vac.
2006
Vac.
2005
Vac.
2004
Vac.
2003
Vac.
2002
Vac.
2001
Vac.
2000
Enclosed 205,802 140,451 65,351 2,150 1.0% 0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 1.7%
Strip 756,619 321,057 435,562 4,100 0.5% 1.4% 1.0% 1.5% 3.3% 2.5% 6.3%
Total Alberta 962,421 461,508 500,913 6,250 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 2.2% 1.8% 4.5%
Total Sask. 96,814 0 96,814 4,672 8.4% 5.9% 8.1% 3.6% 8.0% 28.6% 33.5%
Total City 1,059,235 461,508 597,727 10,992 1.0% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 2.7% 4.1% 7.0%
 

4.0    Vacancy 

Removed from the survey this year was 400 sq.ft. located in the Lloydmall, which is now owner occupied storage space.

The overall city-wide mall vacancy is 1.0% with 0.6% on the Alberta side and 4.8% on the Saskatchewan side. The Alberta side of the city has almost 91% of all the mall retail space. The vacancy rate has decreased from the previous year to 1% from 1.4% which suggests a healthy stable retail market.

The vacancy also decreased by 1.1.% on the Saskatchewan side from 5.9% to 4.8%. This is a direct result of only one 4,672 sq. ft. CRU  being vacant.  The Alberta vacancy decreased slightly from the previous year from 1% in 2005 to 0.6% in 2006.

As of January 3, 2007 the overall vacancy increased by 1.04% in the enclosed mall and decreased 0.9% in the strip category.

5.0   New Construction 

Over the last decade most of the new retail construction in Lloydminster has been concentrated on the Alberta side of the border. Commercial vacant land parcels fronting onto 50th Avenue (Highway No. 17 S.) on the Saskatchewan side of the border are actually being or have already been developed.  Added to the survey this year was a new building  located on the corner of 29th street and 50th Avenue.  Square footage of this building is approx. 16,900 sq. ft. 

Lloydminster is strategically located between Saskatoon and Edmonton's trade markets allowing for Lloydminster to have a growing trade area of well over 100,000 people.  The retail sector has definitely had a positive economic impact on the community.

All indications point to a very strong demand for retail space on the Alberta side of the city and a limited demand on the Saskatchewan side of the city.

6.0   Rental Rates 

Discussion with leasing agents indicates there is stronger interest on the Alberta side. Historically, the Saskatchewan side leases up more slowly, at a slightly lower rate than comparable space on the Alberta side.

Rental rates for the strip malls and mini power centers on the Alberta side are in the $8.00/sq. ft. net to $20.00/sq. ft. net range and appear to be in line with retail rates in other major urban centers in Alberta.  The rental rates on the Saskatchewan side appear to be in the $8.00/sq. ft. net to $12.00/sq. ft. net range, which is in line with rental rates for cities of similar size.

Leasing inducements which include rent free periods and/or tenant improvements appear to be minimal in the Lloydminster market. This is due primarily to the limited strip retail available and the pent-up demand for any new construction. The majority of new construction has been on a pre-leased basis.

7.0   Acknowledgements 

Our sincere appreciation is extended to the Lloydminster Economic Development Authority (LEDA) and the Engineering & Planning Department, both of the City of Lloydminster.  Many thanks to Musgrave Developments and Musgrave Agencies for their input regarding the "mini" Power Centers.  Also, thanks to Century 21 for their valuable input regarding leased space. Various other real estate agents and property managers also provided valuable assistance.

8.0   Qualifications 

Readers of this Study are welcome to use the information as deemed appropriate, providing McInnes & Company Appraisals Ltd. and Brunsdon Junor Johnson Appraisals are quoted as the reference sources. The information contained herein is believed but not warranted to be accurate. Readers are cautioned to make their own investigation before making any financial decisions.

McInnes & Company Appraisals Ltd. who co-author this report is a real estate appraisal firm with many years experience, providing a wide range of appraisal services, with the primary market being the northwest portion of the Province of Saskatchewan and the northeast portion of the Province of Alberta. 

Brunsdon Junor Johnson Appraisals is a real estate appraisal firm providing a wide range of appraisal and consulting services, with the primary market being the north central half of the Province of Saskatchewan. 


Brunsdon Junor Johnson Appraisals
#204, 640 Broadway Avenue
Saskatoon, SK  S7N 1A9
Phone:  306-244-5900     Fax:  306-652-7667

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The last update was done January 11th, 2007 - Ron